CBS’s human zoo is officially open for business! Welcome to Big Brother 21: the human chess experiment where strangers live in a house with zero privacy, a bajillion cameras and microphones, and monster-sized squirrels that break in and stuff them into sacks.

We’re only a little over a week into this summer’s shenanigans, and it seems the men have already lost their shirts while the rest have lost their sanity. Thanks to the sheisty powers of editing, the 16 houseguests have been reduced to mere caricatures, including Token Old Guy, Nerdy Long Islander, Beefy Attractive Guy #1, and Beefy Attractive Guy #2, in addition to a Broadway dancer, a therapist, and a truck driver. Each guest is equal parts quirky and annoying in his or her own way, but they’re all primed for the game and ready to backstab. As last season’s winner, Kaycee Clark, would say: Let’s go!

While Big Brother‘s motto is to “Expect the Unexpected,” the show has become rather formulaic, despite coming off a series-best season with #BB20. As far as twists are concerned, our neighbors to the north at Big Brother Canada have been running circles around BB:US. But let’s just be thankful for the steadfast delivery of super extra attention-whores, hungry for camera time and reality TV glory. Bless.

While we pray for savage backdoors, blindsides, and emotional turmoil, the show has more or less primed us to “expect the expected.” But Big Brother fans are nothing if not patient and loyal, and no matter what happens, we’re here for all the pots, pans, unitards, broken promises, and shattered hearts—bring on the diary room tears!

Here are a few predictions and first impressions following the show’s first batch of episodes:

This cast is going to try to mimic last season’s successful Level Six alliance…and they are going to fail miserably.

CBS

Camp Director Jackson had his crew of jocks in tow (Nick and Aquaman Jack), and they recruited Holly, Bella, and new HOH Christie to their ranks. My money is on them falling apart the second someone outside their alliance wins the crown. I know it’s early, but I don’t believe for a second that any of these six have the social skills and gameplay of Tyler and Kaycee. In fact, I’d bet a week of slop on it.

The outsiders need to stick together.

CBS

The outliers seem to be Cliff, Nicole, Kemi, Ovi, and Jessica, but if these five want to survive, they’re going to have to start their own Quack Pack and fire a direct hit at the main six (we need silly alliance names ASAP please!). Jessica’s emotions could land her in hot water, but Nicole is the outsider you should have your sights on. She’s a big fan of the game and seems to have a good head on her shoulders, but will she be able to assimilate herself into this crowd of hot LA bartenders? It’s a toss up.

David and Ovi aren’t going anywhere…yet.

CBS

David, the photographer from Atlanta, was kidnapped by a furry and banished from the BB house, only to return in a new twist called Camp Comeback. After Ovi’s eviction, Host Julie Chen Moonves announced that the first four evicted houseguests will compete for a chance to re-enter the game, but they’re going to live inside the house while they wait for that chance. So a pre-jury Battle Back is in our future. Shocker. I’m not a fan of the Battle Back; the “twist” was overkill when Victor won his way back into #BB18 about 72 times. If an evicted houseguest is going to re-enter the game, producers need to get creative and zig when we expect them to zag. To be fair, the show did get creative with last season’s Power App, but Kaitlyn wasn’t able to finish a six-piece puzzle of herself. Sometimes, it’s hard being a Big Brother fan. Sigh.

Jackson had a serious case of HOH-itis, and he was only the Camp Director.

CBS

His choices for banishment weren’t surprising. It was all very jock-picks-on-perceived-weaklings. If we must have an evicted houseguest back in the fold, David returning with a vendetta against Jackson could be something to root for. In just a single day, Jackson certainly got some (wait for it)…blood on his hands.

With David and Ovi in Camp Comeback and Jack as the new Head of Household, who will be the third houseguest sent packing? Find out next time, kids! (Or, you know. Check Jokers Updates for feed deets.) And let’s just pray to OTEV that this season is filled with strategy, shifting allegiances, and cunning gameplay. A killer Big Brother season is exactly what Rockstar’s daughter deserves for her birthday.